Could the Literature Prize result have been leaked?

The Swedish daily newspaper Dagens Nyheter has an intriguing article titled “The odds indicate a leak” about the betting in the run-up to yesterday’s Literature Prize. As I mentioned yesterday there was a rush in betting for Tomas Tranströmer just before his name was read out, but I hadn’t realised his odds had plunged from 13 to 1.66.

You can see the original article in Swedish here. Many thanks to Britt Warg for bringing this article to my attention, and for providing an English translation, which you can read below. (I’ve only included the relevant excerpts.)

This could, of course, have been due to a rush of domestic bets hoping for a home-grown favourite to scoop the prize. Or not. If I hear any more I’ll update this post.

The odds indicate a leak
Published today 14:16

The odds at the betting company Ladbrokes suggests a leak of the acknowledgement that the poet Tomas Tranströmer was to be awarded this year’s Nobel prize in Literature.

The betting changed significantly this morning and Tranströmer went high. That’s unusual, says Sofia Hjärtberg, press officer at Ladbrokes in Sweden.

For the whole week, Bob Dylan has topped the list at Ladbrokes. Then, a bid for Dylan would have given six times the money.

Tomas Tranströmer, on the other hand, had not been as ‘hot’. Up until Thursday morning, he had 13[/1] as odds.
But shortly after 9am (local time), people began to suspect something was wrong.
Suddenly the bids for Tomas Tranströmer started to flood in – they were both numerous and high. In an hour’s time, the odds had gone down from 13 to 1.66. 
— We have never seen such a change, says Sofia Hjärtberg.

 

Ladbrokes have been offering betting for the Literature Prize since 2003. Three years ago, when the Frenchman Jean-Marie Gustave Le Clezio received the prize, the company had to close the bidding as the bids for him literary exploded just a day or so before he was awarded the price.
— We felt something was wrong so we closed down the game.
No such drastic measures this year then?
— No, this happened so quickly, so we didn’t do that. Those who put down their odds at 9am when the odds were still at 13 have made good money on this. After that time, they all went downhill quickly, says Sofia Hjärtberg
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